Sri Lanka in a Transforming South Asian Economic Landscape (Data as at 2018) 0 945

SL in Transform

 

  • India remains the Global leader and among the fastest growing economies of the world with a population of 1,316 Mn and USD 2,689 Mn.
  • Bangladesh with 162 Mn people with a GDP of USD 286 Bn has also sustained high economic growth in recent times.
  • Pakistan With a population of 199 Mn people and economy of USD 306.0 Bn GDP has slowed down its growth momentum, but remains a potentially important player in the region.
  • Nepal with a population of 29 Mn and an economy of USD 28 Bn sustains 6 percent growth in GDP in its transition to a lower middle income country.
  • Bhutan and Maldives with smaller in terms of population as well as GDP sustain near 7 percent growth in their respective GDP. Maldives commands the highest per capita income status in South Asia  while Bhutan commands one of the happiest country in the world,
  • Sri Lanka with 21 Mn people and a GDP of USD 92 Bn have lost its growth momentum and its development drive in recent years although it is still commanding the highest per capita income of around USD 4,000 in South Asia next only to Maldives.
  • Afghanistan with 30 Mn population remains as one of the poorest economies in the world with 2.5 percent growth in GDP and South Asia.   

 

Source : IMF – World Economic Outlook 2018 and Country Economic Updates
Source : IMF – World Economic Outlook 2018 and Country Economic Updates

By: BiZnomics Special Economic Correspondent

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Speculative Bubble In the Making 0 1139

By : Kenneth De Zilwa

Speculative-Bubble-In-the-Making-Lets-Examine-the-Details
                                              Source: Thomsonreuters & Authors Calculation

The stock market rally can be put into context by analyzing its market capitalizations as percentage and Gross Fixed Capital Formations as a percentage  of GDP

The long term Market Capitalization as percentage indicates that that the Global markets as overbought and that a correction is in order.

The previous three occasion were 1997-1999 the Japan Asset bubble in and US banking crisis in trigged the fall. In 2000-2001 it was the US dotcom bubble and finally in 2007-2008 the US mortgage and derivative bubble.

Gold Trend in the Coming Month 0 922

By : Kenneth De Zilwa

Gold has lost its value from its high of USD 1858 per ounce as at August 2011  to its current levels of USD 1225 January 2019

The markets do seem to read more into dollar positive news than anything else and  thus the sell off in Gold (XAU) now seems to be now nearing its end with further global weakness trickling into the global markets. Any sign of a global meltdown could spur a rally in Gold as that is the safe haven when times are uncertain.

The geopolitical tensions between China and US too caused further shocks in global markets. More so in stock markets. As we saw global Stock markets fall by 16pct in 2018, and metals prices slumped to their lowest in a year, however with signs of a trade deal on the table between US and China we could see metals gain in the short term. Econsult expects Gold to test USD 1350 before we see the next move.

Gold Trend In the Coming Month

Recommendation by Econsult – We feel that the bottom for is safe and that a short burst in Gold is very much on the cards. So we would recommend to buy Gold for a rally to USD 1400