Sri Lanka in a Transforming South Asian Economic Landscape (Data as at 2018) 0 801

SL in Transform

 

  • India remains the Global leader and among the fastest growing economies of the world with a population of 1,316 Mn and USD 2,689 Mn.
  • Bangladesh with 162 Mn people with a GDP of USD 286 Bn has also sustained high economic growth in recent times.
  • Pakistan With a population of 199 Mn people and economy of USD 306.0 Bn GDP has slowed down its growth momentum, but remains a potentially important player in the region.
  • Nepal with a population of 29 Mn and an economy of USD 28 Bn sustains 6 percent growth in GDP in its transition to a lower middle income country.
  • Bhutan and Maldives with smaller in terms of population as well as GDP sustain near 7 percent growth in their respective GDP. Maldives commands the highest per capita income status in South Asia  while Bhutan commands one of the happiest country in the world,
  • Sri Lanka with 21 Mn people and a GDP of USD 92 Bn have lost its growth momentum and its development drive in recent years although it is still commanding the highest per capita income of around USD 4,000 in South Asia next only to Maldives.
  • Afghanistan with 30 Mn population remains as one of the poorest economies in the world with 2.5 percent growth in GDP and South Asia.   

 

Source : IMF – World Economic Outlook 2018 and Country Economic Updates
Source : IMF – World Economic Outlook 2018 and Country Economic Updates

By: BiZnomics Special Economic Correspondent

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The slide of the rupee is an inevitable fact 0 733

By : Kenneth De Zilwa

The trend still remains soft and lower based on technical analysis. Thus Econsult thinks Soya meal would be continue to trade lower over the next three-four months of 2019.

China has slashed its forecast for 2018/19 soybean imports as farmer reduced their use of the bean in animal feed because of the Sino-U.S. trade conflict, which lead the government to raise its supply deficit estimate. Imports of soybeans in the crop year that starts on Oct. 1 will be 83.65 million tonnes, down 10.2 million tonnes from last month’s estimate of 93.85 million tonnes, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its crop report.

The ministry said the lower forecast for soybean imports was due to the promotion of lower-protein feed for livestock and poultry. Additionally, falling profits at pig farms should reduce demand for soymeal feed for the herds in China, which will keep demand subdued.

The slide of the rupee is an inevitable fact - 01

Source :Thmosonreuters

While the size of the soybean import cuts are largely inline with broader industry forecasts, the report marks the first official assessment by the Chinese government on the impact of the trade war. The outlook highlighted that China’s vast pig farming sector is rapidly adjusting for a prolonged trade dispute with USA. In July 2018, Beijing levied an additional 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans, threatening supplies from the second-largest exporter of the oilseed to China.

The uncertain import outlook has  pushed the 2018/19 soybean deficit forecast to 3.57 million tonnes from 250,000 tonnes in August, according to the Chinese government report. The ministry also raised its 2018/19 domestic soybean output forecast to 15.83 million tonnes from 15.37 million tonnes in August. (Reuters)

Herd Behavior – Driven by Market Share 0 458

By : Kenneth De Zilwa

  • Global stock markets are strongly correlated to each other and this makes any financial  contagion rather predictable and broad based.Herd Behavior - 01
  • From Asian Markets to the European Markets investors find their collective behavior of chasing earnings leading to a herd mind set. This mind set can be both good and bad, in fact more exemplified when the bad unfolds as many tend to sell out pushing a rapid fall while short selling adds to the avalanche effect
  • Over the past year the stock markets have declined
    • S&P –US by 10.14%
    • FTSE-UK by  0%
    • Nikkie-Japan- by  78%
    • DAX-Germany by  0%
    • CSE –Sri Lanka by 6.07%
  • Therefore, 2019 we feel could be a year where markets correct lower, as  corporate earnings and higher debt on many corporate balance sheets  makes it a challenging time for markets.

Herd Behavior - 02

  • Our advice is to stay in cash and watch for value stocks , as the market will provide the opportunity  given the  business cycle