Gold Trend in the Coming Month 0 837

By : Kenneth De Zilwa

Gold has lost its value from its high of USD 1858 per ounce as at August 2011  to its current levels of USD 1225 January 2019

The markets do seem to read more into dollar positive news than anything else and  thus the sell off in Gold (XAU) now seems to be now nearing its end with further global weakness trickling into the global markets. Any sign of a global meltdown could spur a rally in Gold as that is the safe haven when times are uncertain.

The geopolitical tensions between China and US too caused further shocks in global markets. More so in stock markets. As we saw global Stock markets fall by 16pct in 2018, and metals prices slumped to their lowest in a year, however with signs of a trade deal on the table between US and China we could see metals gain in the short term. Econsult expects Gold to test USD 1350 before we see the next move.

Gold Trend In the Coming Month

Recommendation by Econsult – We feel that the bottom for is safe and that a short burst in Gold is very much on the cards. So we would recommend to buy Gold for a rally to USD 1400

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Speculative Bubble In the Making 0 980

By : Kenneth De Zilwa

Speculative-Bubble-In-the-Making-Lets-Examine-the-Details
                                              Source: Thomsonreuters & Authors Calculation

The stock market rally can be put into context by analyzing its market capitalizations as percentage and Gross Fixed Capital Formations as a percentage  of GDP

The long term Market Capitalization as percentage indicates that that the Global markets as overbought and that a correction is in order.

The previous three occasion were 1997-1999 the Japan Asset bubble in and US banking crisis in trigged the fall. In 2000-2001 it was the US dotcom bubble and finally in 2007-2008 the US mortgage and derivative bubble.

Political Leadership-A Matter of Age 0 741

Political Leaders a Matter of Age

By: Dr. Kenneth De Zilwa

Perspective

Age has become an increasingly discussed topic when it comes to our political leaders (i.e. Parliamentarians), the arguments have been that we are unduly saddled with older politicians that make the parliament system meaningless as it prevents the infusing of young energetic and more progressive leaders in to governing the country. Well, yes this is definitely one aspect that is on the table and it seems to be the dominant view shared by many of whom are frustrated about the responsibility and accountability of these members albeit their ability to comprehend the demands of the younger generations. Therefore the proposers of this debate are eager for changing the status quo. On the other hand there are those who contend that age is just a number and the ability of the person irrespective of one’s age is what matters in a participatory democracy, for people have many routes to representation and redress.

In order to really get to the bottom of this debate we need to analyse and understanding the dynamics of the global public office and the trends in life expectancy.

Scrutiny of Public Office

The evolution of democracies has meant that parliaments are indispensable and now are deemed to be an integral part of the institutional framework that represents the people’s democratic choice. The choice of selection (be it liberal or conservative or its varying compositions) is of course based on their own perceptions of what the future should be transformed into considering the stage of its economy, social and environmental concerns and the overbearing global geopolitical trends. Irrespective of country-specific rules, the role of parliamentarians, (of both men and women), remains the same: to represent the people and ensure that public policy is informed by the citizens on whose lives they impact. If we look at the political context of each country we find a unique disposition in their selection process, however, parliaments and Parliamentarians do face a common challenge, that is, how best to consult citizens and keep them informed about parliamentary deliberations and how such deliberations would eventually shape the people’s lives (for better or worse, as public policy cuts both ways). What is important here is that the relative maturity of parliamentarians is called into focus, as the people are now looking for responsibility, accountability and also the bottom-line, of delivery.

The UNDP Global parliamentary study undertaken in 2012 indicated that there are 46,552 Members of Parliament (MPs) in the world. Of which there are 8,716 women parliamentarians, or 19.25 pct.  of the total number of MPs. While the global average number of parliamentarians per country is 245.China has the largest parliament with 3,000 members in the Chinese National People’s Congress. The world’s smallest parliament is in Micronesia, with just 14 MPs.  While the global average age of a male MPs is 53 the average age a woman MP is 50. Sub-Saharan African MPs have the lowest regional average age at 49 with Arab countries the highest at 55.

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