Gold has lost its value from its high of USD 1858 per ounce as at August 2011 to its current levels of USD 1225 January 2019
The markets do seem to read more into dollar positive news than anything else and thus the sell off in Gold (XAU) now seems to be now nearing its end with further global weakness trickling into the global markets. Any sign of a global meltdown could spur a rally in Gold as that is the safe haven when times are uncertain.
The geopolitical tensions between China and US too caused further shocks in global markets. More so in stock markets. As we saw global Stock markets fall by 16pct in 2018, and metals prices slumped to their lowest in a year, however with signs of a trade deal on the table between US and China we could see metals gain in the short term. Econsult expects Gold to test USD 1350 before we see the next move.
Recommendation by Econsult – We feel that the bottom for is safe and that a short burst in Gold is very much on the cards. So we would recommend to buy Gold for a rally to USD 1400
The rupee has weakened by 17.5pct on a year to date basis, we feel that most of the correction could be nearing an end as the 20pct targeted weakness could soon be complete. The weakness also seem to be now in line with a REER of 100 and thus could seen some consolidation once the 20pct target is reached i.e. 186.00.
China and India are two large countries with India occupying a greater part of South Asia. China has its territory spanning across East Asia. The two countries together, account for 36pct of global population. China has sustained double digit GDP growth for 30 years up to 2010. India on the other hand, has grown at half the Chinese growth-rate over the same period. China has consolidated its global position becoming the second largest economy in the global landscape. In contrast, India is counted the seventh largest economy as of now, having bypassed many established economies in the traditional developed world. The economic production values and population size of these two countries make them a significant catalyst for driving global growth trends.
Many have spoken about China and its phenomenal ascent on to the global economic stage. It is common knowledge now that China would dislodge the USA from the number one position in the global ranking of economies and would come to dominate the world GDP by 2030. There is no doubt that China has been the most extraordinary growth story in the history of mankind. It has become a classic model of development economics too. For liberating 600 million people from poverty in a span of 40 years, building of course on the socialist foundations laid down since 1949, is an achievement no other democracy can boast of.
The China growth story i.e. profit story, shows that state enterprises need not necessarily be a hindrance to growth, rather they can make the difference; that public investments on infrastructure provides the big push; that import substitution is as important as exports to exploit to full advantage the advances in technology, investment and trade for economic progress; and that state-guided market forces are development friendly. This success story and underlying business cycle fundamentals continue to unfold at a rapid pace across all asset markets. Many economic commentators and businesses alike share the sentiment that China’s dominance would continue in the next 50 years.
A careful analysis of past trends seems to highlight another view. I tend to argue that India would be the next Asian miracle in terms of its Global growth story i.e. profit story, and would match China in 30 years i.e. by 2050. Imagine the emerging Asian economic landscape with China and India free of poverty, with full employment and giving leadership to a new economic order, replacing the hegemony of the West.
Population projections indicate that by 2050, India would have a population of 1,730 million whereas China would reach a population saturation point of 1,400 million (East Asian Forum.Org). These two countries combined would account for 36pct of the world population by this time. This would be a rich population, with new aspirations and changing lifestyles.
Demographic data show that India would be endowed with a relatively younger population compared to that of China (Table-1). India’s young workforce with knowledge and skills would be India’s strength. Those between 15 and 64, are expected to rise from around 64pct of its population in 2009 to 70pct in 2020. Meanwhile, China’s relatively cheap and semi-skilled cohorts of population are expected to start declining from 2014, resulting in labor shortfalls by 2050. This would mean that a more intellectually hungry, urban based middle class would take over the driving of India’s profit story and would unleash a wave of innovation in the sphere of manufacturing, technology and music and film industry. One expects an Indian resurgence in the horizon waiting to explode on the world stage.
By 2050 the Indian economy would be in a much stronger position with leading brands such as Tata, Maruti, Godrej, Infosys, Amul, Bajaj, Ashok Leyland, Asian Paints, Dabur, Apollo Tyres, Britannia, and the zestful Bollywood influencing the world on a much larger scale than what we have seen so far. In this expected scenario India would outpace China by growing at a compound rate of 8.50pct (Table-2) and would reach USD 57.2 trillion with a per capita income of USD 33,700. China in the meantime would struggle to consolidate its current growth momentum over the next 20 to 30 years. It would grow at a compounded growth rate of that of an advanced economy, growing at 3.3pct reaching 47.6 trillion USD dollars with a per capita income of USD 33,900. When compared, the numbers added together are staggering. Additionally, when we look at the merchandise trade turnover between China and India the data indicates these two countries would account for circa 30pct (USD 100 Trillion) of world merchandise exports by 2055 from its current 14.5pct.
In fact data indicates that China’s economy is already showing signs of losing steam. Slowing down has commenced, with 2018 data indicating that it grew at the weakest pace since the first quarter of 2009. This slowing down has been caused by the higher base effect, growing costs of production and labor costs are now seeping into the real economy. Chinese companies have begun to search for other Asian and South Asian economies to house their industries affected by high domestic production costs. This is an indication of how China would now be challenged in the competitive capitalist environment. A declining profit story would only compound the longer term growth trajectory (Figure-1). Added to the Chinese woes is their new breed of westernized economists who are now showing signs of losing sight of its competitive advantage obtained over the golden years of development.
Undeniable Asian Dominance in 2055
The rise of Asia spurred by India and China is inevitable, therefore Asian economies/policy makers and businesses should gradually look at their business models, cultural and geopolitical linkages and synergies thereby carving out their growth plans to suit the new world order by 2055 given that the US will be the only western country to make it into the top five economies in the world.
Whatever the superficial debates that are out there, the ground realities are undeniable and must be taken seriously or we will definitely be left behind in the dinosaur era. It is therefore crucial that Sri Lankan policy makers value both India and China as they are in the Asian continent with significant consumer markets and a burgeoning middle class fueled up with an appetite for modernity. These consumers will be pleasantly drumming up the tune of the Asian Century of World Dominance and we must be ready to dance to the beat. This outcome is indeed sweet music to the ears of Asians (Global Sri Lankans). Unfortunately, many of Sri Lankan and Asian business models are ill-prepared for this eventual reality of the Asian Century.