Global non – inclusive growth; Extract from article by Christean Lagarde 0 705

IMF Chief Christean Lagarde in her message in the IMF Annual Report 2018 says that countries should promote an open and rule basis multilateral trading system, and should strive to make new technologies work for all – boosting rather than undermining inclusive growth and financial stability.

According to her, the growth momentum of the global economy is under pressure from a slow erosion / weakening of trust in institution due to, a) the lingering effects of the global financial crisis. b) perception that the rewards of economic growth and globalization are not being shared fairly and equitably. c) anxiety over future of jobs and economic opportunity. d) weak governance frameworks that often facilitate corruption. She further emphasizes that population ageing and over-funding of pension schemes are holding back economic momentum. Income disparities are widening and if unaddressed the climate change is likely to severely disrupt economic wellbeing in the decades ahead.

Lagarde urged that European Union (EU) leaders need to redouble their efforts to lift living standards across the continent as populist movements question the merits of integration. The poorer southern countries in the EU have not caught up with their richer northern peers – a gap that has worsened since the global financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2017, the average annual growth in real income per person, was negative in the five southern members of the euro zone, hit hardest by the crisis.

She urged EU countries to reform their labor markets so that firms have greater flexibility in hiring and firing workers and their business climate becoming more welcoming to investment. These developments it is hoped, would increase spending on research and development.

Lagarde’s remarks come amid a turbulent debate over Britain’s exit from the EU, as well as amidst signs of spluttering growth in the world’s biggest economic bloc. The IMF partly blamed softening demand across Europe for having to cut its 2019 forecast for global growth, for the second time in three months.

South Asia to remain fastest growing region in world

The World Bank Global Economic Prospects Report released on 05th February 2019, expects South Asian regional growth to accelerate to 7.1 percent in 2019, under pinned by strengthening investment and robust consumption. India is forecast to grow by 7.3 percent as consumption remains robust and investment growth continues. Bangladesh is expected to grow by 7.0 percent supported by strong construction and infrastructure investments. Nepal growth forecast to moderate to 5.9 percent. Sri Lanka is anticipated to grow by 4.0 percent supported by domestic demand and infrastructure projects. Pakistan is projected to decelerate by 3.3 percent with financial conditions tightening.

By: Econsult

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Soya Market Insight 0 765

By : Kenneth De Zilwa

Chicago soybean futures appear to have hit a bottom post the trade war between Washington and Beijing  as they had indicated the curbing demand for U.S. supplies of the oilseed in top importer China. Wheat dropped to a low USD 329 MT on the back of the U.S. spring crop boosted expectations of a bumper harvest.

Soya-Market-Insight - 01

Econsult called the soya price trend accurately in last months edition. The soya markets did correct lower and is currently trading lower at USD 349 MT.

The markets continue gradually edge up despite the selloff, however, we at Econsult feel that the lower price thrill seekers might find the bear market a bit over done and could be caught in bear trap i.e. on the wrong foot if they continue to sell. The market is bound to correct higher we feel that the short term trend could push soya to USD 355 MT  as a trade deal between Beijing and Washington is reached  at least for the next two or three months. The double bottom lows would confirm this reversal in price action.

In fact the current lows was last seen in November 2015

 

Econsult Recommendation :  Buy 30% of your portfolio at current levels part for the overall  trend still is looking soft

Political Leadership-A Matter of Age 0 872

Political Leaders a Matter of Age

By: Dr. Kenneth De Zilwa

Perspective

Age has become an increasingly discussed topic when it comes to our political leaders (i.e. Parliamentarians), the arguments have been that we are unduly saddled with older politicians that make the parliament system meaningless as it prevents the infusing of young energetic and more progressive leaders in to governing the country. Well, yes this is definitely one aspect that is on the table and it seems to be the dominant view shared by many of whom are frustrated about the responsibility and accountability of these members albeit their ability to comprehend the demands of the younger generations. Therefore the proposers of this debate are eager for changing the status quo. On the other hand there are those who contend that age is just a number and the ability of the person irrespective of one’s age is what matters in a participatory democracy, for people have many routes to representation and redress.

In order to really get to the bottom of this debate we need to analyse and understanding the dynamics of the global public office and the trends in life expectancy.

Scrutiny of Public Office

The evolution of democracies has meant that parliaments are indispensable and now are deemed to be an integral part of the institutional framework that represents the people’s democratic choice. The choice of selection (be it liberal or conservative or its varying compositions) is of course based on their own perceptions of what the future should be transformed into considering the stage of its economy, social and environmental concerns and the overbearing global geopolitical trends. Irrespective of country-specific rules, the role of parliamentarians, (of both men and women), remains the same: to represent the people and ensure that public policy is informed by the citizens on whose lives they impact. If we look at the political context of each country we find a unique disposition in their selection process, however, parliaments and Parliamentarians do face a common challenge, that is, how best to consult citizens and keep them informed about parliamentary deliberations and how such deliberations would eventually shape the people’s lives (for better or worse, as public policy cuts both ways). What is important here is that the relative maturity of parliamentarians is called into focus, as the people are now looking for responsibility, accountability and also the bottom-line, of delivery.

The UNDP Global parliamentary study undertaken in 2012 indicated that there are 46,552 Members of Parliament (MPs) in the world. Of which there are 8,716 women parliamentarians, or 19.25 pct.  of the total number of MPs. While the global average number of parliamentarians per country is 245.China has the largest parliament with 3,000 members in the Chinese National People’s Congress. The world’s smallest parliament is in Micronesia, with just 14 MPs.  While the global average age of a male MPs is 53 the average age a woman MP is 50. Sub-Saharan African MPs have the lowest regional average age at 49 with Arab countries the highest at 55.

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