Different Models of Developmental State 0 671

Development-Stage

To put it bluntly, there isn’t one economic theory that can single-handedly explain Singapore’s success; its economy combines extreme features of capitalism and socialism. All theories are partial; reality is complex

Development-Stage

Prof. Ha-Joon Chang

  • Former Consultant – (UNCTAD, WIDER, UNDP, UNIDO, UNRISD, INTECH, FAO, and ILO),
  • Former Consultant – The World Bank, the European Investment Bank, the Asian Development Bank.
  • Former Consultant for the Governments of Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Ecuador, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Namibia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, UK, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Vietnam.
  • Winner of the 2003 Myrdal Prize.
  • Winner (jointly with Richard Nelson of ColumbiaUniversity) of the 2005 Leontief Prize for Advancing theFrontiers of EconomicThought awarded by Tufts University.
  • Winners of the Prize include the Nobel Laureates Amartya Sen and Daniel Kahnemann as well as John Kenneth Galbraith and Albert Hirschman.
  • He was ranked no. 9 in the Prospect magazine’s World Thinkers 2014 poll.

The ‘classic’ developmental state is an ideal type derived from the East Asian – more specifically Japanese – experience between the 1950s and the 1980s. 

There were of course variations even within East Asia. Korea actually went further down the road than Japan did, although now it has moved to the opposite extreme, embracing neo-liberalism as if there is no tomorrow. Between the 1960s and the 1980s, the Korean state pursued some of the most market-defying selective industrial policies, using an extremely powerful pilot agency (the Economic Planning Board, or the EPB) and total state ownership of the banking sector, both of which were missing in Japan. The Taiwanese state may have intervened in the affairs of the private sector less forcefully and dramatically than Japan or Korea did, but that was in part because there were few no large private sector firms in whose affairs the state felt the need to intervene. The other side of the coin of the weakness of the private sector in Taiwan was that SOEs (especially in upstream intermediate inputs industries, where scale economy is crucial) and state-financed R&D played a more important role in Taiwan than in Korea or Japan. Singapore used yet another model, combining free trade, a welcoming (albeit carefully targeted) approach to foreign direct investment, and a massive SOE sector (one of the biggest in the non-oil-producing world, producing 22% of GDP, when the world average is 9-10%). 

Even the ‘classic’ developmental state was, however, not confined to East Asia. During the same period, under a similar political condition of nationalistic, interventionist rightwing hegemony, France used a very similar strategy of economic development, involving (indicative) planning by Commissariat Général du Plan (the planning commission), sectoral industrial policy (of course, somewhat constrained by the imperatives of European integration) led by elite bureaucrats, and aggressive use of SOEs (Cohen, 1977, Hall, 1986, Hayward, 1986, and Chang, 1994). There is even anecdotal evidence that Japanese bureaucrats stationed in France were reporting on French policy practice.

If we broaden our definition of the developmental state to include any state that deliberately intervenes to promote development, we could argue that the Scandinavian countries also practiced a variety of developmentalism, especially since the 1950s. 

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Biznomics Note Pad 0 768

By Biznomics Research Team

Market Embraces Sri Lanka Sovereign Bond Issue

Sri Lanka raised USD 2.0 billion international sovereign bonds on the strength that IMF has endorsed the country’s economic performance, while the bonds having been rated by international rating agencies as “Non-Investment” grade. In fact Moodys attached “B2” rating while Standard and Poor’s and Fitch assigned “B” rating. The USD 500 million face value bond with 5-year maturity was raised at a semi-annual coupon rate of 6.35 percent while USD 1,500 million with 10-year maturity was raised with a semi-annual coupon rate of 7.55 percent. The Bonds were subscribed by 91 percent fund managers while 5 percent came from insurance and pension funds.

1

Sri Lanka entered in to the international bond market in 2007 and the June 2019 issue was the 14th USD benchmark offering. This was also the country’s second sovereign bond transaction this year. The Government of Si Lanka raised USD 1 billion 5-year bond at a semi-annual coupon rate of 6.85 percent and a 10-year bond at a semi-annual coupon rate of 7.85 percent in March 2019.

2

Sri Lanka has USD 17 billion ISBs as of June 2019 and account for nearly 50 percent of Government external debt.

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Rupee still not out of the woods 0 893

By : Kenneth De Zilwa

The USD/LKR has halted its slide temporarily. The main factor had being CBSL “Moral Suasion” and regular intervention in the spot market.  Despite these measure the external environment vulnerability had seen the currency slip by 19pct in 2018.

USD-&-LKR
Source: Thomsonreuters

 

The analysis below indicates the rupee weakness over the past 2 years. Thus we continue to believe that the overall trend of a stronger Dollar viz a viz the LKR would continue in 2019.

The Central Bank has made it position clear as they are going stick to an exchange rate policy of cautious intervention at times of excessive volatility in the forex market, Central Bank Governor Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy said on 4th January 2019 at the launching of the economic road map for 2019.

Recommendation by Econsult – Stay long Dollars and use opportunity of selling by the CBSL / Moral Suasion to buy Dollars on dips

Forward Market Quotes For USD/LKR- FWD prices must be used in pricing of Cost of sales

FWD price = Spot + Premium

Forward-Price
Source: Thomsonreuters